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Holdout group

A holdout group is a randomly selected portion of your audience that is deliberately excluded from a campaign or journey so you can measure its true incremental effect. If the holdout converts at the same rate as recipients, the campaign did nothing — those users would have converted anyway.

Updated 8 Jul 20262 min readBy fromHello
Key takeaways
  • A holdout group answers the only honest question about a campaign: did it cause conversions, or would they have happened anyway?
  • Per-campaign holdouts measure one message; a global holdout measures your entire messaging program over time.
  • Randomization is what makes the comparison valid — a hand-picked exclusion list measures nothing.

How does a holdout group work?

Before a campaign or journey launches, a random slice of the eligible audience is assigned to the holdout. Those users match the recipients in every way except one: they never receive the message. After the campaign runs, you compare conversion rates between the two groups, and the difference is the incremental lift — the conversions the campaign actually caused. Open and click rates flatter every send; only a holdout separates the conversions you caused from the conversions that were already coming.

What is the difference between a global and a per-campaign holdout?

A per-campaign holdout is excluded from one specific message, so it measures that message's lift — useful for expensive sends like a win-back sequence. A global holdout is excluded from all marketing for a longer window, often a quarter, and measures what your whole program is worth. Braze's global control group, for example, lets you reserve between 1% and 15% of your user base and reports uplift in sessions and conversions against it. Per-campaign holdouts answer tactical questions; a global holdout tells you whether messaging moves your North Star metric at all.

Holdout groups and the adjacent experimentation terms.

Why it matters for a two-person team

Small teams cannot afford to keep running campaigns on faith. A holdout is cheap insurance against that: most journey builders can carve one out with an A/B split node where one branch simply exits without sending — the guide to journey orchestration covers how the ab_split node works. Reading the lift at the end is the kind of call a CRO specialist makes: keep the campaign, rewrite it, or kill it and reclaim the send budget.

How big should a holdout group be?

Big enough to detect the lift you care about, small enough that the opportunity cost stays acceptable. On small audiences, percentages get noisy fast: a 5% holdout of 500 users is 25 people, and a single conversion swings the result. Common practice among messaging platforms is single-digit percentages for global holdouts — Braze caps its global control group at 15% — and somewhat larger slices for one-off campaign tests. When in doubt, prefer one global holdout read over months to many tiny per-campaign holdouts read once.

FAQ

Common questions

  • Holdout group vs control group: what is the difference?

    Every holdout is a control group, but not every control group is a holdout. In an A/B test, the control receives the current variant; a holdout receives nothing at all. Use an A/B split to pick the better message, and a holdout to prove the message earns its place.

  • How long should a global holdout run?

    Long enough for the behavior you measure to play out — a full campaign cycle at minimum, and often a quarter for lifecycle programs. Rotate membership periodically so the same users are not excluded from all messaging forever.

  • Do holdout groups cost revenue?

    A little, by design: a fraction of your audience misses messages that might have converted them. That cost buys the only reliable estimate of what your campaigns are worth, and it usually pays for itself in cancelled campaigns and reallocated budget.

  • Can a small startup use holdout groups?

    Yes, with realistic expectations. Below a few thousand users per campaign, per-campaign lift is mostly noise, so a single global holdout measured over months is more informative. Start there and add per-campaign holdouts as volume grows.

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